SCRIPTING VICTORY

In a watershed election, Karunanidhi comes back to power as his sops, personal charisma and caste arithmetic prove invincible

By S.S. Jeevan

Muthuvel Karunanidhi began his career as a scriptwriter for Tamil films in the age of hyper melodrama. The lines he wrote created winners in reel life. Much later he replicated that talent in real life. Now in the sunset of his political career, he has scripted a victory again. The calculations were right and his shrewdly crafted manifesto for the DMK, promising rice at Rs 2 a kg and freebies like colour TV sets, managed to checkmate his opponent and win over the electorate. However, it was not just the freebies that did the trick. In a war between arithmetic and chemistry, Karunanidhi got both the arithmetic and the chemistry right.

Sure he had history on his side. The state has voted out incumbents unfailingly for 15 years. But there is a twist in the script. The victory is not one sided. J. Jayalalithaa's AIADMK has gained in Chennai, long heralded as the bastion of the DMK. It won seven of the 14 seats there. Karunanidhi has called this loss a "setback". Also, contrary to the state's history of landslide victories for a single party, no party has managed a majority on its own this time. Actor Vijaykanth's Desiya Marumalarchy Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) and cine icon Karthik's Forward Bloc may have helped Karunanidhi by cutting into the caste bastions-between them the duo spoiled the AIADMK's chances, taking south Tamil Nadu away from it-but largely, the state's watershed election has cut its demigods to size and sublimated democracy. In defeat Jayalalithaa said, "I accept the verdict of the people and thank all those who voted for the AIADMK alliance."

Within a couple of hours of counting, it had become clear that the DMK chief, who will celebrate his 83rd birthday next month, was on his way to heading the state's first-ever coalition government. His party has won 96 of the 234 seats and emerged as the single-largest party in the Assembly. This will be Karunanidhi's fourth term as a chief minister. His allies, particularly the Congress, which have performed beyond expectations, helped his Democratic Progressive Alliance (DPA) get 163 seats. The Congress, though nowhere near its 1960 tally of 61 seats, notched its highest number in 20 years by winning 34 of the 48 seats contested. The PMK and the communists won 18 and 15 seats, respectively.

For once the election script had no villains. If one were pressed to point out one, it was poverty, and both parties tried to outdo each other by offering a series of sops. Jayalalithaa walked into Karunanidhi's trap when she first criticised the sops and then topped the DMK's offer. Attacking an offer of sops is not a smart political strategy. Voters may or may not believe the politicians' promises but they do take offence if the opponents try to deny them a promised gift horse.

If Karunanidhi did well to convert his promises into votes it was because he boosted the arithmetic of caste coalition with personal chemistry. His opponent, though praised for her improved governance, chose to be aloof, hardly ever getting off her Tempo Traveller to make contact with the voters. She addressed people at road junctions, street corners and impromptu sessions on the highways, but the people could see her only through the windshield or the window glass. It was almost as though she were on television. Indeed, a last-minute request by MDMK chief Vaiko for rallies in big towns was turned down by the AIADMK supremo. Karunanidhi, in contrast, struggled up the steps of numerous podiums to reach out to the masses. Many suggest that this might have helped the DMK get sympathy votes.

The DPA won evenly across the state. If the Congress swept Sivaganga and Vellore districts, the communists restored their grip over Thanjavur and made impressive gains in Kanyakumari. The PMK asserted its influence in north Tamil Nadu, while other allies bagged the coastal districts of Cuddalore and Nagapattinam, where the incumbent lost heavily despite the AIADMK government's much-talked-about tsunami rehabilitation programme.

The DPA's victory has much to do with Karunanidhi's statesman-like approach towards his allies and his serene style of campaigning. He was able to connect with the masses at well-attended public meetings. Even though he spent only about 15 days campaigning, the recurring images on the Sun Network made up for his absence. It also helped that the dozen-odd Central ministers, including the prime minister and the Congress' star campaigner, Union Finance Minister P. Chidambaram, toured the state, underscoring the alliance's proximity to the Centre.

In a sense, Karunanidhi made compromises to conquer as he parted with a large number of seats. In a break from the past, he indicated he was not averse to forming a coalition. In electoral politics, the promise of sharing power works like a tonic. What's more, even in victory, Karunanidhi said he would consult his allies on forming a government. The DPA could withstand the "money wave" unleashed by the AIADMK because of the dedicated work by cadres and leaders of all partners, he added. While Congress leaders privately talked of sharing power, they refrained from issuing any statement of power-sharing as the decision has been left to the party high command. The PMK also does not seem to be averse to joining the government. Only the communists have categorically stated that they would support it from the outside.

History will analyse Jayalalithaa's defeat at leisure but prima facie the AIADMK failed to reckon the force of caste mathematics. It also underestimated the threats. For instance, the AIADMK believed that Vijaykanth was on its side as he criticised Karunanidhi and the DMK at every rally. Though his nascent DMDK contested in almost all constituencies, it could win only one seat-Virudhachalam, which was won by Vijaykanth. But his thondar padai (volunteer army) played havoc with the AIADMK's votes, particularly in Jayalalithaa's strongholds in the southern and western districts by cornering about 8 per cent of the votes. In some constituencies the DMDK got over 20,000 votes. "The Vijaykanth factor tilted the scales in favour of the DPA," says political commentator Cho Ramaswamy.

Using the former actor's vehicle for campaigning, Vijaykanth worked on the MGR appeal and lured the rural poor. His younger compatriot from Kollywood, Karthik, too cut into the trusted Thevar vote bank of Jayalalithaa. They converted the bipolar elections into a triangular contest in many constituencies, denying the AIADMK a return and delivering to the Karunanidhi's alliance a crucial edge in many closely fought constituencies. Take, for example, the case of DMK General Secretary K. Anbazhagan, who won the Harbour constituency in Chennai by a mere 400 votes. Even the outgoing industry minister Nainar Nagendran lost the Tirunelveli seat by just 780 votes. The record voter turnout of over 70 per cent also went against the incumbent. Significantly, the minorities have also backed the DMK alliance. And despite Jayalalithaa's rollbacks, government employees and minorities have voted against her, says a poll analyst. The AIADMK seats have largely come from Coimbatore and Tuticorin.

In terms of strike rate the DMK did much better-it won 96 of the 129 seats contested-than the AIADMK, which won only 61 of the 182 seats. The AIADMK's much-vaunted ally MDMK won only 6 of the 35 seats, while Thol Thirumavalan's Dalit Panthers of India won two of the nine seats it contested. The defeat, though, has not been as bad as it was feared given the difference in vote share. "Compared to the 2004 Lok Sabha elections the current election only indicated a downward trend in the DMK vote bank," says Vaiko. To win 69 seats is no mean recovery. Jayalalithaa herself has done well. She won the Andipatti seat by over 24,000 votes.

When Jayalalithaa took over as chief minister in 2001, the statue of Kannaki suddenly disappeared from the Marina Beach in Chennai. Some astrologers are rumoured to have found it inauspicious. Kannaki is the heroine of a Tamil classic who forgave her husband for leaving her for a beautiful courtesan, but fought for him even after his death. "To Karunanidhi, Kannaki epitomised the Tamil woman's character," says writer Vaasanthi in her recent book.

Karunanidhi's first statement after winning was that he would reinstall the statue of Kannaki at Marina Beach. It is symbolic that after ousting the puratchi thalaivi (revolutionary leader) he will restore the original revolutionary to her pedestal. He also declared that the DMK will not be "politically vindictive". Given the history of vendetta politics in Tamil Nadu, it is difficult to believe that adversaries can live and let live. It may be an unintended dividend but Tamil Nadu could yet see the dawn of a new era of tolerance.

(India Today, May 22, 2006)