SMALL IS POWERFUL

With most pollsters predicting a photo-finish, smaller parties and allies may hold the key to government formation in Chennai

By S S Jeevan

Ever since the state came into being in 1953, Tamil Nadu, formerly Madras, has been a fanatical believer in single-party rule. While the Congress ruled for a little over a decade, regional parties have held sway since 1967. But now the state is witnessing a phenomenal rise of caste-based parties and marginal players. Their importance can be gauged from the fact that they have managed to wrangle a significant number of seats from the big Dravidian parties that are leading the two alliances. While the M. Karunanidhi-led Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (DMK) has had to part with over 100 seats out of the 234 seats up for grabs, even the tightfisted J. Jayalalithaa's All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (AIADMK) had to grudgingly give away over 50 seats to its allies. Both parties have been forced to accept the growing reality of coalition politics. And with pollsters predicting a photo-finish on May 8, the allies may well be the ones holding the key to Fort St George, the seat of government in Chennai.

Though discontent has been simmering among communities for quite some time, till a few years ago, caste polarisations were hardly reflected in the electoral results. The dynamics, however, changed in 1998 when the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), a party of Vaniyars, walked away with four of the five Lok Sabha seats it contested in alliance with the AIADMK. It also got 6 per cent of the total votes, which it consolidated to over 8 per cent in 1999. Now with its influence spread in over 80 constituencies across 10 districts, S. Ramadoss' party, in alliance with the DMK, has fielded candidates in 31 seats.

The Dalits have traditionally voted for the AIADMK, but have enjoyed little space in the power matrix. The emergence of the Dalit Panthers of India (DPI) gave some fillip to the community's aspirations in the northern districts. Party chief Thol. Thirumavalavan, who fought along with the DMK in 2001, has now joined the AIADMK and is expected to boost the Jayalalithaa-led alliance in the northern districts of the state.

Poll analysts believe that due to the absence of a third front in the state, parties such as the PMK and the DPI switch loyalties in every election in order to get the best deals. For someone who is testing the waters for the first time, actor Vijaykanth has managed to get remarkable appreciation for his off-screen performance. Putting to rest months of speculation over which alliance he would join, Vijaykanth, a Naidu by caste, says his Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) will play an important role in the event of a fractured mandate.

The spotlight, however, is on his caste mate Vaiko, who provided the shock value to the poll battle with his dramatic poll-eve U-turn. The Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) leader seems to have realised the perils of fighting alone and analysts believe that his joining hands with Jayalalithaa was nothing more than a desperate attempt to reinvent and reposition himself for a future in a multi-party system. Vaiko's party is contesting in 35 constituencies, and his votes in the other constituencies in the southern districts are bound to strengthen the AIADMK alliance. This region is also home to a large section of the Thevar community, a caste to which Jayalalithaa's close friend Sasikala Natarajan belongs.

According to poll estimates, the religious minorities, who hold over 10 per cent of the total vote share, are largely with the DPA, though sections of the Muslims and Christians have thrown their weight behind the AIADMK. The Federation of Minorities faced a vertical split recently when 10 organisations broke away to support Jayalalithaa. In response, Catholic archbishops met Karunanidhi to reaffirm their support to DMK. Some Christians also find it hard to believe that the Anti-Conversion Bill has been withdrawn, as, they say, it is technically in force. They have sought job quotas in government institutions as well as a constitutional amendment to extend reservation to Dalit Christians.

Muslims, who have traditionally stayed with the DMK, have asked for reservation too. Some groups have even called for the release of all the accused in the Coimbatore serial blasts, including Abdul Nasser Madani, the chairman of Kerala's People's Democratic Party. "Let the court give its judgement. But why are you denying them bail?" says M.H. Jawahirullah, president, Tamil Nadu Muslim Munnetra Kazhagam (TMMK), which is supporting the DMK-led front. The Muslims are concentrated in many regions of the state, including Chennai, Tirunelveli and Coimbatore. However, one faction of the Muslim League has joined the AIADMK.

Election 2006 could well mark a turning point in the politics of the state. The Dravidian parties no longer look invincible. In many ways, they are being slowly edged out by relatively smaller groups and individuals. The dynamics of caste polarisation have also become pronounced, with every group becoming vocal in a bid to foist its community agenda. And in any close contest, these groups could well end up separating the winners from the losers. Perhaps the only positive fallout of a fragmented polity could be a respectable Opposition strength in the state Assembly, which has so far been a rarity in Tamil Nadu politics.

(India Today, May 8, 2006)